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<title>Diez variante 🚌</title>
<link>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/categorias/transporte.html</link>
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<lastBuildDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT</lastBuildDate>
<item>
  <title>Resultados piloto encuesta 1</title>
  <link>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/11-05-2026-resultados-piloto-1/resultados-pilot-1.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<section id="caracterización-de-la-muestra" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="caracterización-de-la-muestra">Caracterización de la muestra</h2>
<p>El primer piloto contó con 224 respuestas desde <a href="https://www.netquest.com/encuestas-online-investigacion">Netquest</a>, de las cuales 96 respuestas fueron consideradas válidas (gente que efectivamente usaba el corredor).</p>
<p>Es un poco complejo el índice de incidencia (estamos bajo el 50% de opbacioón objetivo vs población encuestada). Ojalá se pueda hacer algo al respecto desde Netquest.</p>
<p>A continuación, se muestran algunos gráficos de caracterización:</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/11-05-2026-resultados-piloto-1/demografia.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>Caract. Demográfica</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/11-05-2026-resultados-piloto-1/viajes.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>Caract. viajes</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/11-05-2026-resultados-piloto-1/likert.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>Resultados Items Likert</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</section>
<section id="modelos-preliminares" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="modelos-preliminares">Modelos preliminares</h2>
<p>Se plantearon 3 modelos de Logit Mixto. Las especificaciones se muestran a continuación</p>
<section id="mxl---efecto-panel-variables-instrumentales-medibles" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="mxl---efecto-panel-variables-instrumentales-medibles">MXL - Efecto panel + variables instrumentales (medibles)</h3>
</section>
<section id="mxl---efecto-panel-variables-instrumentales-variables-hedónicas" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="mxl---efecto-panel-variables-instrumentales-variables-hedónicas">MXL - Efecto panel + variables instrumentales + variables hedónicas</h3>
</section>
<section id="mxl---indicadores-de-satisfacción-por-modo-agregados" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="mxl---indicadores-de-satisfacción-por-modo-agregados">MXL - Indicadores de satisfacción por modo agregados</h3>
</section>
</section>
<section id="resultados" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="resultados">Resultados</h2>
<p>A continuación, se muestran los resultados de las estimaciones de los modelos anteriores:</p>
<div style="overflow-x: auto; width: 100%; margin-bottom: 2em;">
<p><style> .qmd-latex-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75em; /* Letra más pequeña <em>/ min-width: 800px; } .qmd-latex-table caption { caption-side: top; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 0.5em; /</em> Margen reducido <em>/ text-align: center; color: inherit; } .qmd-latex-table th, .qmd-latex-table td { padding: 3px 8px; /</em> Espaciado vertical mucho más apretado <em>/ text-align: left; } .qmd-latex-table th { border-top: 2px solid currentColor; border-bottom: 1px solid currentColor; font-weight: bold; padding-top: 4px; padding-bottom: 4px; } .qmd-latex-table .center-col { text-align: center; } .qmd-latex-table tbody tr.midrule td { border-top: 1px solid currentColor; } .qmd-latex-table tbody tr.bottomrule td { border-bottom: 2px solid currentColor; } .qmd-latex-table .subheading td { font-weight: bold; padding-top: 8px; /</em> Reducido para que no se expanda tanto <em>/ padding-bottom: 2px; } .qmd-table-notes { font-size: 0.75em; /</em> Notas más pequeñas <em>/ line-height: 1.3; /</em> Interlineado más compacto <em>/ margin-top: 8px; /</em> Más cerca de la tabla */ text-align: justify; } .phantom { visibility: hidden; } </style></p>
<table class="qmd-latex-table">
<caption>
Table 1: Comparison of Mixed Logit Specifications (Hess Error-Component Spec, Panel Data)
</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>
Parameter
</th>
<th>
Category
</th>
<th class="center-col">
Model 0
</th>
<th class="center-col">
Model 1
</th>
<th class="center-col">
Model 2
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="midrule">
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?ASC_%7Btrain%7D"> (Fixed)
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.0000 (–)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.0000 (–)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.0000 (–)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?ASC_%7Bbus%7D">
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-1.4232 (-4.64)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-1.6964 (-5.02)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.6692 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.38)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?ASC_%7Bmicro%7D">
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-1.2302 (-2.57)**
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-1.2080 (-2.49)**
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.1689 (-0.09)
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="midrule">
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Btt%7D"> (Travel Time)
</td>
<td>
Instrumental
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.01295 (-2.78)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.01253 (-2.62)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.01212 (-2.55)**
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bcost%7D"> (Cost)
</td>
<td>
Instrumental
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.000173 (-2.86)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.000150 (-2.45)**
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.000151 (-2.48)**
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bhw%7D"> (Headway)
</td>
<td>
Instrumental
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.00452 (-1.26)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.00334 (-0.92)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.00332 (-0.90)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bvar%7D"> (Variability)
</td>
<td>
Instrumental
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.00107 (-0.18)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span><img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?3.4%20%5Ctimes%2010%5E%7B-5%7D"> (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.01)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?8.2%20%5Ctimes%2010%5E%7B-5%7D"> (-0.01)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Blmt%7D"> (Last-Mile Time)
</td>
<td>
Instrumental
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.00220 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.17)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.00783 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.58)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.00612 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.45)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bcrowd%7D"> (Crowding)
</td>
<td>
Hedonic
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.1569 (-3.58)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.1570 (-3.57)***
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Baircon%7D"> (Air Conditioning)
</td>
<td>
Hedonic
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.1223 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.92)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.1200 (<span class="phantom">-</span>0.90)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bsellers%7D"> (Vendors)
</td>
<td>
Hedonic
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.1033 (-0.73)
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-0.0985 (-0.70)
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="midrule subheading">
<td colspan="5">
Satisfaction Indices (sum of 9 Likert items per mode, range 9–45)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bsatisf,train%7D">
</td>
<td>
Latent proxy
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.1628 (<span class="phantom">-</span>3.54)***
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bsatisf,bus%7D">
</td>
<td>
Latent proxy
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.1040 (<span class="phantom">-</span>1.96)*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Cbeta_%7Bsatisf,micro%7D">
</td>
<td>
Latent proxy
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
<span class="phantom">-</span>0.1551 (<span class="phantom">-</span>3.58)***
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="midrule subheading">
<td colspan="5">
Error Components (Hess et al.&nbsp;2008 spec, single shared <img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Csigma">)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Csigma_%7Bpanel%7D">
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1.6260 (8.88)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1.6592 (8.90)***
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1.4820 (9.11)***
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="midrule subheading">
<td colspan="5">
Fit Statistics
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Observations / Individuals
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1225 / 96
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1225 / 96
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1225 / 96
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Estimated parameters
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
8
</td>
<td class="center-col">
11
</td>
<td class="center-col">
14
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Final Log-Likelihood
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-695.26
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-688.38
</td>
<td class="center-col">
-677.46
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
AIC
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1406.52
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1398.77
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1382.91
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
BIC
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1447.41
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1454.98
</td>
<td class="center-col">
1454.46
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bottomrule">
<td>
Adj. <img src="https://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?%5Crho%5E2"> (vs.&nbsp;Equal Shares)
</td>
<td>
–
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.3450
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.3486
</td>
<td class="center-col">
0.3560
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>Robust t-ratios entre parentesís. Significancias: *** p &lt; 0.01, ** p &lt; 0.05, * p &lt; 0.10.</p>
</blockquote>
</section>
<section id="código" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="código">Código</h2>
<section id="mxl---efecto-panel" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="mxl---efecto-panel">MXL - Efecto panel</h3>
<div class="code-copy-outer-scaffold"><div class="sourceCode" id="cb1" style="background: #f1f3f5;"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb1-1"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-2"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># LOGIT MIXTO PANEL - ESPECIFICACION HESS et al. (2008)</span></span>
<span id="cb1-3"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-4"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Componentes de error iid (entre alternativas, no entre observaciones)</span></span>
<span id="cb1-5"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># en las TRES alternativas, con UNA sola sigma compartida.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-6"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Identificacion garantizada por la independencia de los draws entre</span></span>
<span id="cb1-7"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># alternativas y la estructura panel.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-8"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Referencia: Apollo Manual, seccion 6.2 / Figura 6.7.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-9"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-10"></span>
<span id="cb1-11"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># -- Configuracion SLURM (procesado por submit_to_nlhpc.py) -------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-12"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># @slurm partition   = "debug"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-13"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># @slurm time        = "00:30:00"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-14"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># @slurm cores       = 44</span></span>
<span id="cb1-15"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># @slurm mem_per_cpu = 345</span></span>
<span id="cb1-16"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># @db C:/Users/Pablo/Desktop/tesis-magister/SP/netquest-soft_start-v2/data/master_db_netquest_soft_start_v2.csv</span></span>
<span id="cb1-17"></span>
<span id="cb1-18"></span>
<span id="cb1-19"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 1. ENTORNO -------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-20"><span class="cf" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-weight: bold;
font-style: inherit;">if</span> (<span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">!</span><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">nzchar</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">Sys.getenv</span>(<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"SLURM_JOB_ID"</span>)) <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&amp;&amp;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-21">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">requireNamespace</span>(<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"rstudioapi"</span>, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">quietly =</span> <span class="cn" style="color: #8f5902;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">TRUE</span>) <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&amp;&amp;</span></span>
<span id="cb1-22">  rstudioapi<span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">::</span><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">isAvailable</span>()) {</span>
<span id="cb1-23">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">setwd</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">dirname</span>(rstudioapi<span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">::</span><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">getSourceEditorContext</span>()<span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">$</span>path))</span>
<span id="cb1-24">}</span>
<span id="cb1-25"></span>
<span id="cb1-26"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># install.packages("apollo")</span></span>
<span id="cb1-27"></span>
<span id="cb1-28"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">library</span>(apollo)</span>
<span id="cb1-29"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">library</span>(dplyr)</span>
<span id="cb1-30"></span>
<span id="cb1-31"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">rm</span>(<span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">ls</span>())</span>
<span id="cb1-32"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_initialise</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-33"></span>
<span id="cb1-34"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Cores: NLHPC lo dicta via SLURM; local default = 8</span></span>
<span id="cb1-35">nCores_use <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">as.integer</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">Sys.getenv</span>(<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"SLURM_CPUS_PER_TASK"</span>, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">unset =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"8"</span>))</span>
<span id="cb1-36"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">cat</span>(<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"[INFO] Usando"</span>, nCores_use, <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"cores</span><span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">\n</span><span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"</span>)</span>
<span id="cb1-37"></span>
<span id="cb1-38"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Path BBDD</span></span>
<span id="cb1-39">db_dir <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">Sys.getenv</span>(</span>
<span id="cb1-40">  <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"NLHPC_DB_DIR"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-41">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">unset =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"C:/Users/Pablo/Desktop/tesis-magister/SP/netquest-soft_start-v2/data/"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-42">)</span>
<span id="cb1-43">database <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">read.csv</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">file.path</span>(db_dir, <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"master_db_netquest_soft_start_v2.csv"</span>))</span>
<span id="cb1-44"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">names</span>(database) <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">trimws</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">names</span>(database))</span>
<span id="cb1-45">database[<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">is.na</span>(database)] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span></span>
<span id="cb1-46"></span>
<span id="cb1-47"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># FILTRO: Eliminar observaciones donde se eligio el opt-out (alternativa 4)</span></span>
<span id="cb1-48">database <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">subset</span>(database, choice <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">!=</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">4</span>)</span>
<span id="cb1-49"></span>
<span id="cb1-50"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-51"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 2. CONFIGURACION DE APOLLO</span></span>
<span id="cb1-52"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-53">apollo_control <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>(</span>
<span id="cb1-54">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">modelName       =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"modelo3-Panel_Hess_SinOptOut - Netquest v2"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-55">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">modelDescr      =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"Logit Mixto Panel - Hess et al. 2008 (EC iid en las 3 alternativas) - Sin Opt-Out - Netquest v2"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-56">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">indivID         =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"id_response"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-57">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">mixing          =</span> <span class="cn" style="color: #8f5902;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">TRUE</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-58">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">nCores          =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">8</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-59">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">outputDirectory =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"output"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-60">)</span>
<span id="cb1-61"></span>
<span id="cb1-62"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-63"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 3. DEFINICION DE PARAMETROS A ESTIMAR</span></span>
<span id="cb1-64"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-65">apollo_beta <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>(</span>
<span id="cb1-66">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">asc_train =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-67">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">asc_bus   =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-68">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">asc_micro =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-69"></span>
<span id="cb1-70">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Nivel de Servicio</span></span>
<span id="cb1-71">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_tt      =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-72">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_cost    =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-73">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_lmt     =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-74">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_hw      =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-75"></span>
<span id="cb1-76">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Confort y Confiabilidad</span></span>
<span id="cb1-77">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_var     =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-78">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_crowd   =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-79">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_aircon  =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-80">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">b_sellers =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-81"></span>
<span id="cb1-82">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ----------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-83">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># CAMBIO CLAVE 1: una sola sigma compartida en lugar de sigma_bus y sigma_micro</span></span>
<span id="cb1-84">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Valor inicial 0.5 (no 0) para evitar partida en una region plana de la LL.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-85">  <span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ----------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-86">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">sigma_panel =</span> <span class="fl" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0.5</span></span>
<span id="cb1-87">)</span>
<span id="cb1-88"></span>
<span id="cb1-89"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Constante del tren como referencia (esto no cambia respecto al modelo anterior)</span></span>
<span id="cb1-90">apollo_fixed <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"asc_train"</span></span>
<span id="cb1-91"></span>
<span id="cb1-92"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-93"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 4. CONFIGURACION DE DRAWS</span></span>
<span id="cb1-94"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-95"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># CAMBIO CLAVE 2: TRES draws normales independientes, uno por alternativa</span></span>
<span id="cb1-96"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># (antes habian dos: draw_bus y draw_micro). Ahora se incluye tambien draw_train.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-97"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># La independencia entre estos tres draws es lo que garantiza identificacion</span></span>
<span id="cb1-98"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># en datos panel pese a tener EC en TODAS las alternativas.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-99"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-100">apollo_draws <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>(</span>
<span id="cb1-101">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">interDrawsType =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"mlhs"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-102">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">interNDraws    =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">2000</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-103">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">interUnifDraws =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>(),</span>
<span id="cb1-104">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">interNormDraws =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>(<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"draw_train"</span>, <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"draw_bus"</span>, <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"draw_micro"</span>),</span>
<span id="cb1-105">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">intraDrawsType =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"halton"</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-106">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">intraNDraws    =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">0</span>,</span>
<span id="cb1-107">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">intraUnifDraws =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>(),</span>
<span id="cb1-108">  <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">intraNormDraws =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-109">)</span>
<span id="cb1-110"></span>
<span id="cb1-111"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-112"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 5. COEFICIENTES ALEATORIOS</span></span>
<span id="cb1-113"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-114"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># Tres EC, todos con la MISMA sigma_panel (homocedasticidad). Cada EC usa</span></span>
<span id="cb1-115"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># un draw distinto, lo que los hace independientes entre alternativas pero</span></span>
<span id="cb1-116"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># constantes a lo largo de las T situaciones de cada persona (efecto panel).</span></span>
<span id="cb1-117"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-118">apollo_randCoeff <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> <span class="cf" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-weight: bold;
font-style: inherit;">function</span>(apollo_beta, apollo_inputs){</span>
<span id="cb1-119">  randcoeff <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-120">  randcoeff[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"ec_train"</span>]] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> sigma_panel <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> draw_train</span>
<span id="cb1-121">  randcoeff[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"ec_bus"</span>]]   <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> sigma_panel <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> draw_bus</span>
<span id="cb1-122">  randcoeff[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"ec_micro"</span>]] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">=</span> sigma_panel <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> draw_micro</span>
<span id="cb1-123">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">return</span>(randcoeff)</span>
<span id="cb1-124">}</span>
<span id="cb1-125"></span>
<span id="cb1-126">apollo_inputs <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_validateInputs</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-127"></span>
<span id="cb1-128"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-129"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 6. FUNCION DE PROBABILIDADES</span></span>
<span id="cb1-130"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span>
<span id="cb1-131"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># CAMBIO CLAVE 3: el EC se suma a las TRES utilidades (incluida la del tren),</span></span>
<span id="cb1-132"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># no solo a las J-1 alternativas como en el modelo anterior.</span></span>
<span id="cb1-133"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-134">apollo_probabilities <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="cf" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-weight: bold;
font-style: inherit;">function</span>(apollo_beta, apollo_inputs, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">functionality =</span> <span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"estimate"</span>){</span>
<span id="cb1-135"></span>
<span id="cb1-136">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_attach</span>(apollo_beta, apollo_inputs)</span>
<span id="cb1-137">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">on.exit</span>(<span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_detach</span>(apollo_beta, apollo_inputs))</span>
<span id="cb1-138"></span>
<span id="cb1-139">  P <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-140">  V <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>()</span>
<span id="cb1-141"></span>
<span id="cb1-142">  V[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"train"</span>]] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> asc_train <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span> ec_train <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-143">    b_tt      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_tt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-144">    b_cost    <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_cost <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-145">    b_lmt     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_lmt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-146">    b_hw      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_headway <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-147">    b_var     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_arrival_time_variability <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-148">    b_crowd   <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_crowding_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-149">    b_aircon  <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_aircon_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-150">    b_sellers <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> train_sellers_ordinal</span>
<span id="cb1-151"></span>
<span id="cb1-152">  V[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"bus"</span>]]   <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> asc_bus <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span> ec_bus <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-153">    b_tt      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_tt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-154">    b_cost    <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_cost <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-155">    b_lmt     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_lmt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-156">    b_hw      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_headway <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-157">    b_var     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_arrival_time_variability <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-158">    b_crowd   <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_crowding_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-159">    b_aircon  <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_aircon_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-160">    b_sellers <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> bus_sellers_ordinal</span>
<span id="cb1-161"></span>
<span id="cb1-162">  V[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"micro"</span>]] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> asc_micro <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span> ec_micro <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-163">    b_tt      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_tt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-164">    b_cost    <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_cost <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-165">    b_lmt     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_lmt <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-166">    b_hw      <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_headway <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-167">    b_var     <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_arrival_time_variability <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-168">    b_crowd   <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_crowding_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-169">    b_aircon  <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_aircon_ordinal <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">+</span></span>
<span id="cb1-170">    b_sellers <span class="sc" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">*</span> micro_sellers_ordinal</span>
<span id="cb1-171"></span>
<span id="cb1-172">  mnl_settings <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>(</span>
<span id="cb1-173">    <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">alternatives =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">c</span>(<span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">train =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">1</span>, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">bus =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">2</span>, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">micro =</span> <span class="dv" style="color: #AD0000;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">3</span>),</span>
<span id="cb1-174">    <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">avail        =</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">list</span>(<span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">train =</span> av_train, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">bus =</span> av_bus, <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">micro =</span> av_micro),</span>
<span id="cb1-175">    <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">choiceVar    =</span> choice,</span>
<span id="cb1-176">    <span class="at" style="color: #657422;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">utilities    =</span> V</span>
<span id="cb1-177">  )</span>
<span id="cb1-178"></span>
<span id="cb1-179">  P[[<span class="st" style="color: #20794D;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">"model"</span>]] <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_mnl</span>(mnl_settings, functionality)</span>
<span id="cb1-180">  P <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_panelProd</span>(P, apollo_inputs, functionality)</span>
<span id="cb1-181">  P <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_avgInterDraws</span>(P, apollo_inputs, functionality)</span>
<span id="cb1-182">  P <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_prepareProb</span>(P, apollo_inputs, functionality)</span>
<span id="cb1-183"></span>
<span id="cb1-184">  <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">return</span>(P)</span>
<span id="cb1-185">}</span>
<span id="cb1-186"></span>
<span id="cb1-187"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-188"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># 7. ESTIMACION Y RESULTADOS</span></span>
<span id="cb1-189"><span class="co" style="color: #5E5E5E;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;"># ==============================================================================</span></span>
<span id="cb1-190">model <span class="ot" style="color: #003B4F;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">&lt;-</span> <span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_estimate</span>(apollo_beta, apollo_fixed, apollo_probabilities, apollo_inputs)</span>
<span id="cb1-191"></span>
<span id="cb1-192"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_modelOutput</span>(model)</span>
<span id="cb1-193"><span class="fu" style="color: #4758AB;
background-color: null;
font-style: inherit;">apollo_saveOutput</span>(model)</span></code></pre></div></div>


</section>
</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>tesis</category>
  <category>transporte</category>
  <guid>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/11-05-2026-resultados-piloto-1/resultados-pilot-1.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Preferencias declaradas</title>
  <link>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/07-05-2026-preferencias-declaradas-1/pd-1.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 








 ]]></description>
  <category>transporte</category>
  <category>tesis</category>
  <guid>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/07-05-2026-preferencias-declaradas-1/pd-1.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
  <title>No dejemos morir la micromovilidad compartida</title>
  <link>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>Columna originalmente publicada en el <a href="https://www.sochitran.cl/2025/10/27/no-dejemos-morir-la-micromovilidad-compartida/">Newsletter de SOCHITRAN</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>por Pablo González Aguilera, estudiante de Magíster en Ciencias de la Ingeniería mención Transporte, Universidad de Chile</em></p>
<p>Hace algunas semanas, fue noticia la abrupta salida de operación de más de 150 estaciones de bicicletas compartidas en la ciudad de Bogotá (Infobae, 2025). Exactamente lo mismo pasó a inicios de año en Santiago, donde -de un día para otro- fueron retiradas todas las estaciones de la zona centro de la ciudad (que era donde más se ocupaban) (Mix et al., 2022; The Clinic, 2025). Ahora, muchas ex-estaciones ﬁguran como simples estacionamientos, devolviendo al automóvil espacios que en algún momento fueron pilar y símbolo de la micromovilidad activa. Esta situación recién fue noticia tres semanas después, cuando con Ricardo Hurtubia y Bastian Henriquez publicamos una columna en La Tercera comentando al respecto (Henríquez &amp; Hurtubia, 2025).</p>
<p>No podemos quedarnos de brazos cruzados viendo como de la noche a la mañana se pierde un sistema de transporte público activo y sustentable completo solamente porque no le renta (o porque operacionalmente o por temas de gobernanza ya no le resulta factible) a un privado. Si lo mismo llegara a pasar con sistemas de transporte público mayor, sería noticia en los diarios y la televisión. Habría gente protestando porque le quitaron su modo de movilización. ¿Por qué no usamos esa misma vara para hablar de la micromovilidad? Distribución actual de estaciones.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad/vacio.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>Fuente: <a href="https://citybik.es/">https://citybik.es/</a> Bike Santiago. Se puede ver un vacío de servicio en la zona de Santiago Centro.</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p>Resulta desconcertante ver la falta de congruencia y unidad que mostramos como país en el marco de implementación de este tipo de sistemas. Basta contrastar los casos de Santiago Centro, o Concepción (Canal 9 Bío Bío, 2025) con lo que está pasando en otras localidades del país como Las Condes o Temuco (Forbes Chile, 2024; Municipalidad de Temuco, 2024): mientras en los primeros casos, este tipo de iniciativas sufre de abandono y estigmatización (principalmente relacionada al vandalismo o “desorden”), en los dos últimos, estos esquemas compartidos han llegado a ser un aporte a la comunidad, permitiendo que personas que nunca habían considerado la opción de irse en bicicleta o scooter a sus empleos, ahora lo vean como algo atractivo e incluso conveniente.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad/plaza.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>Micromovilidad compartida en regiones (Estación Plaza Manuel Recabarren, Temuco). Fotografía: temucotelevisión.cl.</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p>Dado lo anterior, es natural preguntarse: <strong>¿qué pasaría si existieran estándares mínimos o guías de implementación de este tipo de sistemas? ¿cómo cambiaría la demanda de viajes si, en vez de tener una ciudad con múltiples sistemas (que por lo demás, quedan a merced de las municipalidades y autoridades locales de turno), existiera un sólo sistema integrado, con infraestructura ciclista de calidad y conectada?</strong></p>
<p>En Chile, la Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Sostenible (Ministerio de Transportes y Telecomunicaciones, 2022) considera la creación de incentivos para la implementación de sistemas públicos de bicicletas y menciona la exploración de subsidios e integración tarifaria con transporte público. ¿Qué ha pasado con esto? Preocupa ver que, a pesar de los lineamientos de política pública planteados hace ya unos años (que por lo demás hemos podido cumplir de manera sobresaliente en otras áreas como electromovilidad en buses), haya un abandono tan grande y falta de cohesión cuando se habla de micromovilidad compartida.</p>
<p>Tenemos que dejar de ver la micromovilidad compartida como algo que está en “decadencia” y empezar a verla como lo que realmente es: una oportunidad de atraer a nuevas personas a medios de transporte más sustentables, de llenar vacíos o incidencias en sistemas de transporte público mayor mediante intermodalidad y de, en deﬁnitiva, darle mayor cohesión y equidad social a la ciudad (Yang et al., 2018; Hurtubia et al., 2021; Tiznado-Aitken et al., 2021; Saltykova et al., 2022; Kosmidis &amp; and Müller-Eie, 2024).</p>
<p>Espero y tengo fe de que tanto en Bogotá como en Santiago (y en Chile entero) no dejemos de lado esto, y que desde el estado (junto a las municipalidades y Gobiernos Regionales) se incentiven iniciativas de colaboración público-privada atractivas, integradas y sostenibles en el tiempo que permitan hacer ﬂorecer de manera armoniosa este tipo de sistemas de movilidad activa.</p>
<section id="referencias" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="referencias">Referencias</h3>
<p>Canal 9 Bío Bío. (2025, marzo 13). Problemas de convivencia vial: Municipio evaluará continuidad del servicio de scooters en Concepción. Canal 9 Bío Bío. https://www.canal9cl/episodios/noticias/2025/03/13/problemas-de-convivencia-vial-municipio-evaluara-continuidad-del-servicio-de-scooters-en-concepcion</p>
<p>Forbes Chile. (2024, mayo 29). ¿Qué comuna de Santiago es más bike-friendly? Forbes Chile. https://forbes.cl/life/2024-05-29/que-comuna-de-santiago-es-mas-bike-friendly/</p>
<p>Henríquez, B., &amp; Hurtubia, R. (2025, marzo 29). Columna de Bastián Henríquez y Ricardo Hurtubia: La silenciosa salida de las bicicletas naranjas. La Tercera. https://www.latercera.com/la-tercera-sabado/noticia/columna-de-bastian-henriquez-y-ricardo-hurtubia-la- silenciosa-salida-de-las-bicicletas-naranjas/</p>
<p>Hurtubia, R., Mora, R., &amp; Moreno, F. (2021). The role of bike sharing stations in the perception of public spaces: A stated preferences analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 214, 104174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104174</p>
<p>Infobae. (2025, agosto 26). Sistema de bicicletas compartidas de Bogotá se acabaría por falta de recursos: “Tembici quebró y no por vandalismo, sino por mala gestión”. infobae.https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2025/08/26/sistema-de-bicicletas-compartidas-de-bogota-se-acabaria-por-falta-de-recursos-tembici-quebro-y-no-por-vandalismo-sino-por-mala-gestion/</p>
<p>Kosmidis, I., &amp; and Müller-Eie, D. (2024). The synergy of bicycles and public transport: A systematic literature review. Transport Reviews, 44(1), 34-68. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2023.2222911</p>
<p>Ministerio de Transportes y Telecomunicaciones. (2022, noviembre). Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Sostenible (ENMS).https://www.subtrans.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Documento-oficial-ENMS-2023-SECTRA.pdf Mix, R., Hurtubia, R., &amp;</p>
<p>Raveau, S. (2022). Optimal location of bike-sharing stations: A built environment and accessibility approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 160, 126-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2022.03.022</p>
<p>Municipalidad de Temuco. (2024, octubre 15). Empresa Whoosh presenta nuevas bicicletas eléctricas para Temuco – Municipalidad de Temuco. https://www.temuco.cl/empresa-whoosh-presenta-nuevas-bicicletas-electricas-para-temuco/</p>
<p>Saltykova, K., Ma, X., Yao, L., &amp; Kong, H. (2022). Environmental impact assessment of bike-sharing considering the modal shift from public transit. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 105, 103238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103238</p>
<p>The Clinic. (2025, marzo 28). Bike Itaú no sigue en Santiago: Usuarios reclaman por el retiro de todos los estacionamientos de las bicicletas naranjas en el centro de la capital. The Clinic.</p>
<p>https://www.theclinic.cl/2025/03/28/bike-itau-dejara-de-operar-en-la-comuna-de-santiago/ Tiznado-Aitken, I., Fuenzalida-Izquierdo, J., Sagaris, L., &amp; Mora, R. (2021). Using the five Ws to explore bikeshare equity in Santiago, Chile. Journal of Transport Geography, 97, 103210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103210</p>
<p>Yang, X.-H., Cheng, Z., Chen, G., Wang, L., Ruan, Z.-Y., &amp; Zheng, Y.-J. (2018). The impact of a public bicycle-sharing system on urban public transport networks. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 107, 246-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.10.017</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>transporte</category>
  <guid>https://diezvariante.cl/blog/posts/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad/01-10-2025-sochitran-micromovilidad.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 27 Oct 2025 03:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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